As investors, behaviorally we have a tendency to avoid the facts. Like whether or not an asteroid will hit the earth on November 8th. Specifically: Asteroid 2005 YU55.
Instead we focus on Fed policy.
As investors, behaviorally, we have a tendency to avoid the facts. Like whether or not this election cycle will be normal. It will not.
Instead we focus on Fed policy.
Will the Fed raise rates in December? “Yes if…”is the standard pundit’s reply.
Ignoring Asteroid 2005 YU55 and the election, we can say, “yes if”:
We agree that the employment data was strong (it was mediocre)
We agree that the market’s reaction will be positive/indifferent (we have now had several days of strong selling)
We agree that Asian markets will react positively (they most likely will not)
We agree that China will not devalue (now might be a good time for them to do so)
Ask yourself, would the Fed knowingly bring an economic “crisis” to a new Administration before it is sworn in?
Now add on to the above set of variables the almost certain chaos that will ensue from this election. Begin imagining:
Voter riots/militias
A disputed election
Immediate indictments (regardless of who wins)
We may be really electing the Vice Presidents, not the Presidential candidates
And that’s just to start.
What about the Asteroid 2005 YU55? It just missed us in 2011, but it was a near miss. That is one less thing for you to worry about.
As investors, focus on the next immediate worry: the election.